This is the first of what I hope will be a series of posts looking at the state of Thanet's politics in the run up to the elections. This post will look at Thanet Conservatives.

This Thanet Conservative topic is inspired by Thanet and the general election and how the two main parties are using the internet by Michael Child.

In 2010 we can well expect Thanet to see two main election battles. District Council and National. That is Thanet District Council (Currently Conservative) and British Parliamentary representation (MPs for Thanet South and Thanet North).

Nationally the Thanet Conservative view looks very promising with, on the one hand, a national disenfranchisement with Labour who were in power when the credit crunch hit us but, on the other hand, we have a disenfranchisement with Thanet's Conservative group over a long list of issues.

Such issues as the granting of planning permission to the China Gateway despite public outcry, the decay of town centres and the expensive town centre parking especially in Margate, the embarrassing by-election in Dane Valley, the scandle of a Thanet Conservative leader and the repeat encounters with the Standards Board, Conservative Councilor Simon Day (Birchington North Ward, Head of Planning) and the sorry story of the highly contentious planning consent and the poor example of adherence that followed, The OAP who died shortly after being Billed £16,000 to cover TDC spending over which she had no control...

As Michael Child points out the "Thanet Effect" will mean that the election will be fought online as well as off with the blogs of Thanet having an impact on the outcome.

That Roger Gale (Thanet Conservative MP) refuses to use things like twitter or facebook finding email to be sufficient suggests a lack of understanding of a shifting playing field.

Thanet Conservatives could do well to take a look at the likes of Totally Wired who seemingly came out of nowhere to create a successful club night for a fairly small niche by using MySapce, Facebook, Twitter and similar social networking sites.

Thanet Conservative Councilors would do well to recognize that bloggers have a much longer memory than the general public and the game for them has completely changed.

Back in the week that followed the news that almost all Councilors had voted to grant planing permission to the china gateway despite strong public protest I had a chance to speak with Councilor Brian Goodwin a Thanet Conservative Party Councilor for the Westgate-on-Sea Ward.

I put it to Cllr Goodwin that this might see a strong backlash come the elections. Cllr Goodwin did not seem to think this was something worth worrying about as "a week is a long time in politics" and so everyone would have pretty much forgotten come the elections.

In short the feeling was that the actions of conservative councilors in Thanet such a long time before an election would not really have any impact on election results.

While this might be the wisdom of the past is it still true?

Is it true the Thanet Conservatives have had a totally free hand to do what they like and only now need to start making the right noises to get re-elected?

I would suggest that while this might have been true once the times they are a-changing and with the advent of the age of the social web memory is a lot longer. Something the Thanet Conservative group might want to consider.

One such Thanet Conservative that has tried to stay current with some success is my public Dance Partner Cllr Simon Moores. Mr Moores has been a blogger for a long time and while the fickle heart of fame may have moved on to other pundits somewhat he is still there representing for the Thanet Conservative Group. The big test of the effectiveness of that representation will be the elections themselves.

Time to make some predictions then.

Roger Gale will probably be retained as a Thanet Conservative MP. Unless Labour pull something big out of the bag he is not going to face much by way of credible opposition. To give the man his due he does appear to get his head down and do his job which is going to count for more and more with each passing election.

The only fly in the ointment for Mr Gale would be if a younger more web savvy potential MP stood up to face him. It'd make for a tough battle especially as Nationally the Conservative Party are going to have good momentum going into the elections. That is not to say that his seat is a done deal we could still face a shock or two yet.

TDC will see a strong swing against Thanet's Conservative Group and this will open her up to falling to another party. In short I think TDC will not be blue come the end of the voting.

I would expect 100% fresh faces in Birchington North Ward and here is an area that Conservatives may loose heavily in. That said the bulk of "blindly voting for the party" types could see Thanet's Conservatives hold on to something.

Dane Valley is likely to be a dead loss for the Thanet Conservative Group likewise Margate Central is going to be a hard fight.

Ramsgate could prove an interesting one. Political activism is higher in Ramsgate than in a number of other key parts of Thanet and the voting is definitely going to be lively. A good web presence could make a huge difference to a prominent political personality. Some seats may be held on to here but a sufficiently charismatic leader showing up could change that. It's not likely so it is any one's guess.

Will I vote Conservative in Thanet? For the council I will not even entertain the idea so long as Sandy Ezekiel refuses to resign completely but beyond that I am not yet decided.

What about you? How do you think Thanet's conservatives will do this election?